Usually, in the first quarter of the year, I devote my newsletter to predicting hot areas for the coming year. However, I think I can do that very simply by just saying the market is good and should stay good. The two things that can de-rail the economy, high-energy costs and the housing bubble, should not affect technical employment here in our region. High oil prices require a technical fix (the last time engineering was a glamour profession was 1980) and our region is still the cheapest metropolitan area on the East Coast.
Having given you the good news, here is the bad news. We are closer to the next recession than we are to the last recession. Historically, we see a slowdown every ten years and the last one was 2001. Those of you who were laid off in the last lousy economy realize how devastating it can be to be in the wrong company in the wrong job at the wrong time. A series of bad decisions can lead, through no fault of your own, to a year of unemployment and a return to the workforce in an unappealing job.
I started thinking about this a few months ago. The Wall Street Journal ran an article about the dichotomy between a low unemployment rate for engineers (2% nationally) and the fact that some engineers had been out of work for over a year, unable to find a job in a good economy. The writer tried hard to blame companies for overly strict hiring criteria but, to my mind, she was unable to make her point. For example, she found a company looking for a HVAC Engineer to design systems for hospitals. She was able to find an engineer who wasn’t hired for that job who had HVAC experience but no hospital experience. He was bitter and his quote was, "After all, a pump is a pump." Now, from my perspective, if I was in a hospital bed on oxygen, I would sure want to know that the fellow who designed the HVAC system knew all the codes and had experience in making sure that pipe besides my bed contained oxygen and not the exhaust from the garage. Before you laugh, that actually happened at a local hospital about 10 years ago. Oops.
This got me thinking about what makes the technical professions so different from others like law, accounting, sales, etc. I thought about the people I know who are still out of work in a good economy and looked at thousands of resumes to find a common theme.
I reached 2 conclusions. One, the pace of change in the technology professions (IT, Engineering, Science) is dramatically quicker than other professions. A Tax Accountant who has not practiced since 1995 should be able to adjust to new laws and policies without much difficulty. He might have to learn how to use new software packages but, from the accountants I have spoken to, he wouldn’t run into anything too difficult.
Now let’s compare that to the Programmer/Analyst who had left the field in 1995 and wants to return in 2005. In that 10-year period you have 3 generations of change ~ mainframe to client server to Internet. That rapid pace of change can make that Programmer/Analyst’s return almost impossible.
That is an extreme example but, to advance our argument, let’s take a Manufacturing Engineer with a general background. Ten years ago his exposure to quality and cost reduction methodologies might have included some TQM. Now, the tool kit is much larger and more sophisticated and the issues more complex. Besides the advent of Lean and Six Sigma systems, there are new automation technologies. In 1995, PLC’s were slick stuff. Now they are commodities and we have a higher level of software involved in machine and systems controls. No professions change as quickly as the technology professions.
The second conclusion I reached is the number of specialties and nuances in the technology world. There is no field with more variations to it than technology. I remember once having to train a group of new recruiters in the difference between all the different types of engineers. By the time I was done, my blackboard looked like a pile of spaghetti. If a company is looking for an Electrical Engineer, for example, the specs might call for experience in product design, strong hardware experience with an emphasis on analog circuitry at certain speeds. The company next door may also be looking for an Electrical Engineer but may want someone who can do electrical maintenance on their production equipment and control system. Two very different jobs, both requiring an Electrical Engineer. Someone who could do the first job could not do the second job and vice versa. Yet both are Electrical Engineers and if someone said the EE market was hot, both would assume that statement would apply to them. That would be akin to the COBOL programmer in 2005 hearing that the IT market was strong and assuming it meant them too. Generally, in the technology professions, at any one time there are hot and cold pockets within the market and the skill transition from one to the other can be daunting.
That is why, in technology more than any other profession, career planning is critical. A misstep can be costly. Your career is a key component of some of the most important things in your life. It helps determine where you live, the type of house you can afford, how much you can afford to pay for your children’s college education and, in some instances, who you marry. Pretty important stuff. If you are not managing your career, drifting through life can be disastrous.
In looking at resumes of thousands of people with varying levels of career success and stability, one thing is clear. Career management is a function of timing and probability. Here is an example of timing. Picture two people. One graduated in 1999, a VERY hot market. The second graduated in 2001, a VERY bad market. Both did well in school and are equally good engineers. However, the 1999 grad started out in a significantly better place then the 2001 grad because of the state of the economy when they happened to graduate. When the 1999 grad thinks about a recession, it doesn’t have any meaning to him personally. He has no frame of reference to a situation where you send out 50 resumes and get no return calls. It is easy to be deluded into thinking that his career success is a function of his own personal wonderfulness and not a function of the market when he graduated. If the 1999 grad blithely ignores career planning and gets laid off in a bad market or makes the wrong choice of career content, their next experience in the job market can be devastating. Overconfidence in their ability to get a new or better job may lead to a lack of homework or planning as to the next step in their career.
The 2001 grad faces different issues, once again because of timing. This person’s experience in the job market was simply horrible. As a fresh grad in the middle of a recession, he sent out hundreds of resumes and got jerked around by scores of companies. He was thankful to land any job. Instead of overconfidence, this person’s problem can be underconfidence. Not only did his initial experience in the job market scare him silly, he settled for a job that he didn’t really want because it was the only one available. The tendency is to hunker down and make the best of a bad situation rather than get out there when the market improves and get a better job. The danger there is that the longer someone stays in a bad job, the more difficult it can be to change jobs. As I pointed out in a Newsletter last year, every year of experience narrows the career arc available to a engineer or technologist.
While no one can plan on graduating in a hot vs. cold economy, understanding the factors that got you where you are now can help you moving forward. In the instances above, the 1999 grad won’t think ahead because he feels that, based upon his 1999 experience in looking for a job, he will always have many suitors. On the other hand, the 2001 grad won’t think ahead because of fear of going through the aggravation and pain of a job search again. Both need to factor in the good luck or bad luck involved when they graduated and how that contributed to where they are today. You can apply the same timing methodology to two people who are laid off, one in 1999 and one in 2001. The person laid off in a strong market may have had 4 offers for 10% more money within a month. The person laid off in a weak economy may have been out of work for 9 months and settled for a 10% reduction. Timing, once again.
You can affect timing by looking at your career as a series of decisions; each one correctly made should increase the probability of career stability and satisfaction. Individually, no one wrong decision should be catastrophic but a series of bad decisions in a row can put a candidate on the defensive and make it difficult to catch up. Let’s look at a moderate case of bad decisions. It is an accurate representation of someone I spoke to last year.
Imagine a 1990 grad BSME who turned down a few offers because he wanted to spend 6 months traveling in Europe. Nothing wrong with that. He figured he could get an entry-level job when he returned. He came back in 1991, in the middle of a recession, and had to look for a job without the help of his college’s placement office. It took about 5 months but he finally got a job paying 5k less than his worst offer in 1990. He did OK and worked hard and was catching up in salary when his company moved to North Carolina in 1996. It was easy to follow his company. He and his wife moved to North Carolina and had a baby in 1998, after which he was promoted to a manager job. While they missed Philly, he did not want to go through the aggravation of looking for a new job up here. They had plenty of time for that later.
After a few years, by 1999-2000, he and his wife started talking about moving back home so their families could watch the grandchild grow up. At this point it was just talk and he never got a resume together. However, in 2002 he got laid off with a few other managers. He saw that as the excuse to look for a job back here in the Delaware Valley and sent out some resumes, with no luck. The economy had significantly deteriorated between 2000 and 2002. His severance eventually ran out and he accepted a contract job in Atlanta and he’s been looking to get back here since.
What went wrong? First, there is nothing wrong with delaying your entry into the job market but don’t take a sabbatical when you have the most options and then return when you have the fewest options. In all PROBABILITY it will hurt you. Make a conscious decision about whether you actually want to relocate with your employer. Don’t just drift along. With a little digging, in 1996, he could have found a job here and not moved down south. Think ahead. Do you want to move far from your parents and in-laws? If not, in a normal market, in all PROBABILITY you can find a local job in our large region. If you move and then want to relocate back home, explore the market in a good economy when companies are more willing to help you with relo expenses. In all PROBABILITY, a company is more likely to look at candidates from out of the area in a hot market rather then a soft market. In 1999, this person could have moved up here easily. In 2002, their’s was just one of a hundred resumes applying for a job. Lost in the shuffle.
The point I am trying to make is not that this person made incorrect or wrong decisions. The point is that every decision this person made, either personal or professional, was made in a vacuum. Not once did they do due diligence on their options at that moment and not once did they consider the ramifications of action or inaction. These decision points build on one another over time and eventually create walls that limit options. It is certainly possible to make every decision "wrong" and have it work out well. Being in the right place at the right time can correct a lot of mistakes. Luck exists but it is folly to count on it. Career planning and career decisions should be integrated into life planning and life decisions.
Lastly, one other trait became obvious in analyzing the backgrounds of people with successful and stable careers. They never ignored the market. They maintained contact with friends and networked well. They looked at job ads. They were always vigilant. That doesn’t mean they were always looking for a job. Changing jobs too often can be as bad as never changing at all. Successful people know when they are in demand and when they aren’t and know what to do in each circumstance. They gather knowledge about the market and use it to maximize the probability of making successful career decisions.
Don’t be someone who sticks their head up out of the sand only when disaster strikes and says, what do I do now? Information and planning require effort. The old joke is that a recession is when your neighbor gets laid off and a depression is when you get laid off. Everyone getting this is someone’s neighbor. Ouch!!
And, as ever, don’t forget Right Recruiting as a source for market info. Happy New Year. Jeff
